Spring-like weather continues as storm systems approach Oklahoma
Spring-like conditions are expected this afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, along with sunshine and gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph.
Dormant vegetation, combined with low relative humidity and gusty winds, will create an elevated fire spread rate today.
Limited Thunderstorm Potential Tomorrow
A storm system will brush parts of eastern Oklahoma tomorrow, bringing a limited chance of thunderstorms, primarily across southeastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex region.
Highs tomorrow will reach the upper 70s with partly cloudy conditions and gusty south winds. If storms develop, they will be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
The data is trending to bring slightly more low-level moisture ahead of the system tomorrow afternoon and evening before it arrives. Locations near and southeast of the Tulsa metro will continue with at least a slight chance of storms tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Behind this system, the air mass will stay mild, with Thursday afternoon highs continuing in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Stronger Storm System Expected Friday
A much stronger storm system will arrive Friday, but the trend for this system is pushing deeper moisture east of most of our areas of concern by Friday afternoon.
Regardless, a slight chance for thunderstorms will be concentrated along and east of the Highway 69 corridor, as moisture attempts to return ahead of a surging dry line moving across the area Friday afternoon.
Due to the dynamic nature of this system, all modes of severe weather will be possible. However, the probability of thunderstorm development remains very low.
Higher chances of storms are expected along and east of the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line.
For the Tulsa Metro, storm probabilities are currently near 10%, with 20% probabilities farther east along the OK-Arkansas state line region.
Severe Fire Threat and Red Flag Warnings Friday
As the strong storm system moves through the area on Friday, surface pressures are expected to deepen as a low-pressure system develops over parts of Kansas. This will result in very strong winds extending from Oklahoma to Kansas.
A dry line will establish itself, separating moist air to the east from dry air to the west. As the dry line pushes eastward Friday, humidity levels are expected to drop to 10–15% across the western two-thirds of Oklahoma, possibly reaching the Tulsa metro by Friday late afternoon.
These conditions, combined with dry vegetation and exceptionally strong west-to-southwest winds of 20 to nearly 60 mph, will create extreme fire spread behavior. Red flag warnings will likely be issued for much of the region near and west of Tulsa by Friday afternoon.
The Weekend Outlook
The low-pressure system is expected to move northeastward late Friday night into Saturday, bringing a cold front across the region. This front will shift winds to the northwest on Saturday at 15 to 25 mph, along with slightly cooler conditions.
Saturday morning lows will be in the mid-40s, with afternoon highs in the lower 60s.
Sunday will start with morning lows in the upper 30s to near 40. By the afternoon, southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph will return, pushing daytime highs to around 70.
Another strong storm system may impact parts of Oklahoma by the middle to end of next week, bringing the potential for thunderstorms and a return of cooler to colder weather.
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Emergency Info: Outages Across Oklahoma:
Northeast Oklahoma has various power companies and electric cooperatives, many of which have overlapping areas of coverage. Below is a link to various outage maps.
- PSO Outage Map
- OG&E Outage Map
- VVEC Outage Map
- Indian Electric Cooperative (IEC) Outage Map
- Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives Outage Map — (Note Several Smaller Co-ops Included)
The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1A1naqV8xmk8RcHZxUvitm
The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Apple:
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